I have always been a fan of science fiction - not fantasy fiction but hard science fiction. Partly it’s because science fiction assumes that there will be a future for humanity, however strange. And partly it’s because these alternative futures are often mind-opening. William Gibson’s novel Neuromancer (published in 1984) was one of those memorable novels that first helped me visualize a world in which virtual reality and digital networks exist, long before they did. More recently, Kim Stanley Robinson’s Ministry for the Future created a vivid picture of the terrifying impact of future climate change while also bringing to life some fascinating and, dare I say, science fiction-like scenarios for creating a better future.
What does this have to do with philanthropy or foundations? The mind-opening possibilities of science fiction are like those of what people call “futures thinking”. And foundations with their flexibility, resources and long term focus are just the organizations to take advantage of futures thinking to open themselves and their partners to new opportunities. Just as Robinson’s Ministry for the Future acts on behalf of a sustainable human and planetary future, philanthropy can act to identify and promote solutions for our common future.
I was prompted in these thoughts by reading Futures Philanthropy: Anticipation for the Common Good a new guide to futures and foresight work released by Philea, the network of European foundations. This guide was developed by Philea and the Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies as a way for philanthropy “to strengthen its futures muscle”. Philanthropic organizations, it suggests, are among the freest institutions in our societies, which makes them good candidates for the development and application of a futures mindset – thinking about future scenarios in a way that helps see the present in a new way. “The future is not a distant void detached from the current moment…but no single approach to the future holds all the answers. Depending a on a single perspective can cause us to overlook the valuable insights that other viewpoints might offer. Merging futures thinking with philanthropy has the potential to address present-day crises and support long-term transformative change”.
How does one develop a futures mindset (beyond developing a taste for science fiction)? The guide offers principles and questions, most of which have to do with open, active listening, using empathy, questioning assumptions, and challenging conventional wisdom. Not easy to do but one can start with creating more diversity around a discussion table and asking more “what if?” rather than “how can” questions.
With a futures mindset, the guide offers some new (to me) tools for applying futures thinking in your organization. It sketches nine tools for provoking conversations and creating possibilities for action. This reminded me of another tool, the useful sensemaking worksheets for thinking about the future offered in Lucy Bernholz’s Blueprint 2024 which I describe in my blog post from January 2024, Thinking Ahead. The guide suggests that “by incorporating futures-driven exercises into team meetings, conference programs and boardroom discussion, you can foster an environment ripe for idea generation and deeper reflection.” Bernholz makes much the same point. There are many ways to challenge one’s thinking in philanthropy. We don’t have to revert to the “same old”.
Philea sets the scene for European philanthropy’s thinking about the future by reporting on the results of a 21st Century Philanthropy survey to which 238 philanthropy, civil society, academia, business, think tank, government and media organizations responded. This could be an interesting exercise for Canadian philanthropy too. Philea asks: In 2033, will philanthropy be a trusted legitimate partner co-shaping societal and ecosystem development, or will it be considered old-fashioned, elitist and unable to inspire debate or provide sparks for transformation? What are the most relevant structural and strategic choices philanthropic leadership is facing?
What do the survey responses indicate? The greatest opportunities for philanthropy in Europe in the next decade center on adopting systemic change approaches, moving to trust-based philanthropy, and collaborating more across sectors. The greatest risks are conservative boards and leaders, slow adaptation or short termism and a focus on the mainstream rather than on innovation. I daresay we would find the same in Canada. What else does the survey offer? The identification of 13 megatrends that will shape philanthropy’s future in the next decade, of which the top five are climate change and environmental degradation, AI and automation, concentration of wealth, climate migration and the rising influence of new governing systems (a retreat of democracy).
This data provides useful context for a foundation’s internal conversations about what will shape its work. Some of the European responses reported by Philea could feed an assessment by a Canadian foundation board and staff trying to imagine what matters in the next decade. But how does this also help us understand the implications for action in the present? What can futures thinking add to a foundation’s strategy development, practices and learning agendas? The guide provides several interesting case studies of European foundations who describe how they have used a futures lens to change their approach to the present. I came away from my dive into this guide more convinced than ever that futures thinking is a valuable addition to a philanthropic organization’s toolkit. And of course, I would suggest you add an SF novel or two to the mix to stimulate your thinking in creative ways.